This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.