A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
